Will the dollar keep falling? USD/PEN forecast for 2025-2026

After a year of sol strength, everyone asks whether the USD to PEN exchange rate will keep sliding or level off. Most banks now forecast a low range, yet they also flag risks that could push the dollar back up.

Exchange-rate projections

• Scotiabank Perú expects the dollar to end around S/ 3.45 in both 2025 and 2026, far below the panic highs above S/ 4.00 recorded in 2021 (El Comercio).
• Renta4 SAB places its base case in a S/ 3.40 – S/ 3.50 range for late 2025, assuming the current mix of external and domestic conditions remains intact (Perú-Retail).
• BCP and independent consultancies such as Reevalua still reference S/ 3.45 for 2026, but some optimistic scenarios project a return to ~S/ 3.30 if metal prices stay high and the Fed accelerates rate cuts (Reevalua).

Risks to monitor

1. Peru’s 2026 elections. Political noise, populist proposals or a credibility shock could widen spreads and prompt a dash into dollars (RPP).
2. A hawkish Federal Reserve. Should U.S. inflation flare up again, the Fed could delay or undo the expected cuts, strengthening the dollar worldwide (Reevalua).
3. Commodity corrections. A sharp drop in copper or gold would remove one of the sol’s main supports (Reevalua).
4. Regional or global shocks. Trade tensions or political surprises elsewhere in LatAm could reignite safe-haven demand for USD assets (Infobae).

Financial tips for households and businesses

• Match your debt to your income. If you earn in soles, keep liabilities in soles whenever possible. That way a dollar rally won’t make your loan installments explode (RPP).
• Diversify savings. Combine PEN deposits with USD or other assets instead of holding a single currency.
• Use real-time alerts. If any of the above risks materialize, USD/PEN can move quickly. Configure alerts and watch the spread between buy and sell quotes before executing a conversion.

Download the LupaDólar app

Get USD/PEN data and smart alerts directly on your iPhone. Download LupaDólar on the App Store to react as soon as the exchange rate reaches your target.